Session Risk Forecast

Timeline

1. 1

   Start

   Orientation + ignition read

   HOW_TO_WORK_WITH_ZEB.md, PROJECT_INDEX.md, ignition.md, _SCHEMA.md, gates.md

2. 2

   20m

   Session Risk Forecast limb implemented

   §3.5 added to ignition.md, session_risk_forecast into _SCHEMA.md, inferred_risks replaced

3. 3

   40m

   Hardening pass 1 — rename audit

   rg searched all scripts; gate_evidence_type → evidence_type safe, no parser reads either field

4. 4

   55m

   Access Control Gate created

   gates.md gate stub, triggers.md Trigger Map row + quick-ref entry

5. 5

   70m

   Hardening pass 2 — loading rule clarification + Example A fix

   Trigger Map fallback rule added; Access Control Gate added to Example A gates_to_load

6. 6

   80m

   Zeb review: accepted

   Verdict: full limb. Proof phase declared — no more machinery for 3–5 sessions.

What shipped

• ignition.md §3.5 SESSION RISK FORECAST — new step in ignition arc, runs after orientation and before session contract hardens

• ignition.md §3.5 — risk surface vocabulary table (8 surfaces: schema, auth_access, env_config, external_service, deployment, data_migration, ux_state, monorepo_tooling, other)

• ignition.md §3.5 — forecast shape with 8 fields including prevention_move and stop_condition

• ignition.md §3.5 — 3 concrete forecast examples (org/member access, deployment/auth config, schema/DB work)

• ignition.md §3.5 — operating rule: forecast drives loading, Trigger Map still governs action-time gates

• ignition.md §3 — session_contract template updated: session_risk_forecast at top, inferred_risks removed

• ignition.md §5 KNOWN TRAPS — explicit Active→Archived and Archived→Active movement rules added

• _SCHEMA.md — session_risk_forecast object added inside session_contract (schema + field docs)

• _SCHEMA.md — inferred_risks removed from declared build fields

• _SCHEMA.md — gate_evidence_type renamed to evidence_type with historical compatibility note

• _SCHEMA.md — gate evidence 'vocabulary' upgraded to 'taxonomy' with precise before/after damage definitions

• _SCHEMA.md — forecast attribution rule: forecasted gates that don't appear in gate_checks are a session audit gap

• _SCHEMA.md — session_contract docs updated from 'three parts' to 'four parts'

• gates.md — Access Control Gate added: trigger conditions, 6-item checklist, what it prevents, proof format

• triggers.md — Access Control Gate row added to Trigger Map

• triggers.md — Access Control Gate added to gates quick-ref table