Engine: The Prediction Ledger

Timeline

1. 1

   Start

   OS feedback consumed

   External evaluation — 'documentation to governance' transition confirmed

2. 2

   Early

   Strike: Council is a retrieval system

   Six headings in a struct is ceremony, not expertise

3. 3

   Mid

   prediction_attribution field added

   The data collection layer that earns the Council — not the Council itself

4. 4

   Mid

   Strike: Ledger is the asset

   Council is the consumer — the ledger outlasts any mechanism that reads from it

5. 5

   Late

   Three-altitude distinction captured

   Lessons explain, traps operationalize, prediction entries train judgment

6. 6

   Close

   Ledger lifecycle named

   How does a ledger entry die? Named as a future question before 300 entries accumulate

What shipped

• prediction_attribution field added to spin_triage in _SCHEMA.md — spin_id, should_have_been_caught_by, why_missed, lesson

• Phase 1.5 section added to crucible-proposal.md — the bridge between plumbing fixes and Council, with QE-first rationale

• Prediction Ledger named as its own section — validators prove present, attribution explains past, ledger trains future, Council consumes ledger

• Ledger lifecycle question documented — how entries die, how they graduate, what happens to black swans. Not built — named for 50+ entries from now

• Strike: The Council is a retrieval system, not a JSON shape — strikes.md + anvils.md

• Strike: The Prediction Ledger is the asset. The Council is the consumer — strikes.md + anvils.md

• Strike: ForgeKit builds at three altitudes of knowledge — lessons, traps, prediction — strikes.md